Archive for December, 2009
Sunday, December 27th, 2009
By Jack Werk
In my last post, I said, IF pressed, that I would give the 2-year-old filly championship to She Be Wild, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Championship defeating G1 winner Blind Luck. The latter, a daughter of the inexpensive first-crop sire Pollard’s Vision ($5,000 stud fee in 2009), came back on Dec. 20 to win the G1 Hollywood Starlet by 7 lengths! This means, Blind Luck is the only 2-year-old filly championship contender with two G1 wins to her resume! Her record: 4 for 6, $709,050 in earnings, and wins in the G1 Starlet and the G1 Oak Leaf, and placed in the G1 BC Juvenile and G1 Darley Debutante. All this from a filly that was purchased for just $11,000 as a yearling! That’s a major accomplishment for her sire, whose fee has been upped to $10,000 at Wintergreen Farm in Midway, Ky., for 2010. And, I think he’s worth every penny of that!
Hot Freshman Pollard's Vision
Pollard’s Vision is a son of Carson City out of Etats Unis, by Dixieland Band. He won 6 races from 23 starts, including the G2 Illinois Derby and the G3 Lone Star Derby, and he was G1-placed at 4 in the Pimlico Special and won the G3 National Jockey Club Handicap and earned $1,430,311. What makes him special so far is that he doesn’t only have one big horse – Blind Luck. In fact he’s got 4 SWs to date, including the multiple Italian SW Air Crew, who won a Listed race on 12/13/09. He also has a quality stakes-placed filly named Fuzzy Britches, who was 3rd in the G3 Demoiselle Stakes at Belmont on 11/28/2009. So, in under a month, he’s put together a pretty nice streak, and as of today (12/27/2009), he was 3rd on the Thoroughbred Times Freshman sire list with $1,442,047 in earnings.
His sire, Carson City, also has been enjoying a revival lately as a sire of sires. There’s another successful first-crop son of Carson City on the first-crop list – Hear No Evil, sire of 2 SWs from only 11 foals, including the top colt Jackson Bend! – and Cuvee and City Zip are doing well, too. In South America, there’s a good young Carson City stallion named Islam, the sire of the G1 Peruvian 2000 Guineas winner this year. And, of course, there’s Pollard’s Vision, who’s got a shot to become the best of them all.
Frank Mitchell, in his excellent blog “bloodstock in the bluegrass,” had a column on Pollard’s Vision a few months ago that touched on a point that I’ve heard about the stallion: He doesn’t sire good-looking foals! As a matter of fact, the stallion’s first-crop yearlings averaged only $9,306, so Blind Luck’s price of $11,000 was actually higher than his average! This is what Frank wrote: “Well, as it happened, a good many of the foals by Pollard’s Vision weren’t show horse pretty, and some of them weren’t fantasy sales horse correct, and some of the others weren’t especially big.” (Click here to read the complete story)
That was obviously the kiss of death in the commercial market, but pretty is as pretty runs, and they are a runnin’!
If Pollard’s Vision keeps up the pace, which I think he will, some of the same people who ignored his yearlings last year will be paying big bucks for them in the future!
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Thursday, December 24th, 2009
By Jack Werk
Blind Luck’s devastating win in the G1 Hollywood Starlet on closing day Sunday means the race for champion 2-year-old filly of the year comes down to her, G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner She Be Wild and G1 Spinaway Stakes winner Hot Dixie Chick. I don’t envy the voters on this one because they are all superb fillies, in my book, and pretty closely matched. But, if I had a gun to my head to make me choose, this is how I would analyze it with a look at the sires, too.
Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision – Lucky One, by Best of Luck): Her first-crop sire is a son of Carson City and only stood for $5,000 in 2009, although he won the G2 Illinois Derby and the G3 Lone Star Derby and was G1-placed at 4 and earned $1,430,311 with 6 wins from 23 starts. Blind Luck has won 4 of 6 starts with a 2nd and a 3rd in G1 races, and she has earned $709,050. She is the ONLY multiple G1 winner of the three and has had the toughest campaign, racing in 4 G1s. (Click here to view Blink Luck’s 5-cross pedigree & Werk Nick Rating)
She Be Wild (Offlee Wild – Trappings, by Seeking the Gold): Her first-crop sire, a son of Wild Again, stood for $7,500 this year. A G3 winner at 3, a G2 winner at 4 and a G1 winner at 5, he earned $976,325 with a record of 6 for 19. She Be Wild won the big race of the season, the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, with Blind Luck in 3rd. Hot Dixie Chick did not contest the race. She Be Wild has a record of 4 wins from 5 starts, a 2nd, and earnings of $1,311,040. Blind Luck’s win in the G1 Starlet flatters her, that’s for sure. (Click here to view She Be Wild’s 5-cross pedigree and Werk Nick Rating)
Hot Dixie Chick (Dixie Union – Above Perfection, by In Excess): Proven son of Dixieland Band is full for 2010 at a $35,000 fee. Probably the best racehorse of the three sires, he won 7 of 12 starts and earned $1,233,190. He was a multiple Graded SW at 2 and won two G1s at 3. Hot Dixie Chick has won 3 of 4 starts, with a 2nd, and she has earned $285685 – the lowest earner. Her G1 win came in the 7f Spinaway at Saratoga.
When you look at the facts, it’s obvious that the race is between Blind Luck, with 2 G1s, and She Be Wild, who beat her in the BC. They all have great records, but Hot Dixie Chick has only won at sprint distances and didn’t contest the big dance. Plus, Hot Dixie Chick’s earnings are paltry compared to the other two, who have raced more than once at the G1 level. (Click here to view Hot Dixie Chick’s 5-cross pedigree and Werk Nick Rating)
On form, look at the filly Beautician, who was 2nd to Hot Dixie Chick in the G1 Spinaway. In her two starts after that, she was beaten twice by She Be Wild – in the G1 Alcibiades (5th to She Be Wild in 2nd) and the BC. Bickersons, who was 3rd in the G1 Spinaway, was then beaten by Blind Luck in the G1 Oak Leaf (Blind Luck 1st, Bickersons 3rd) and then badly beaten behind She Be Wild, Beautician, and Blind Luck in the G1 BC (where she was 10th). Both Bickersons and Beautician (eased) were beaten again by Blind Luck in the Starlet.
And the envelope please . . . and the winner and champion is . . . She Be Wild! She won the BC defeating Blind Luck, and Blind Luck’s G1 Starlet only confirms the BC result!
Click here to view chart of BC Juvenile Fillies.
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Monday, December 21st, 2009
By Jack Werk
I had a sense of “déjà vu” Saturday while watching the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity at Hollywood Park, and here’s the reason why. Twelve years ago, in 1997, Bob Baffert won the same race with Real Quiet in the same silks of Mike Pegram, with the same blue shadow roll! The next year, Real Quiet won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and missed the Triple Crown by a whisker! I was closely associated with Real Quiet because we at WTC Inc. had recommended Quiet American for the late Eduardo Gaviria’s mare Really Blue, and the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, as the race was then called, was Real Quiet’s first stakes win and the start of his Derby campaign.
Real Quiet’ s 1998 Kentucky Derby
As with Real Quiet, I had a hand in the mating that produced Lookin at Lucky, too. You see, one of WTC Inc.’s valued clients is Gulf Coast Farms LLC, then the owner of the mare Private Feeling and the dam of Lookin at Lucky – now without a doubt the 2009 champion 2-year-old colt and 2010 Kentucky Derby future book favorite. Gulf Coast Farms LLC is the breeding operation of Lance Robinson and Jerry Bailey, and every year we make recommendations for the Gulf Coast mares. For the most part, they go with one of our recommendations, but not always. For example, Kensei, the 2006 colt (3-year-old) out of Private Feeling who’s a multiple Grade 2 winner of $553,628, is by Mr. Greeley, whom we did not recommend. However, in late 2005 we recommended that Lance and Jerry breed Private Feeling to Smart Strike in 2006, and that resulting foal was none other than Lookin at Lucky!
Our top three picks for Private Feeling in 2006 were 1) Smart Strike 2) Pulpit and 3) Speightstown. All three are excellent sires, although Speightstown didn’t have runners back in 2006 but was chosen because we thought he had a good chance to make it, and he has certainly had a good run with his oldest foals only 3 this year.
Smart Strike and Pulpit were proven horses, and we liked Smart Strike the best because of the powerful Mr. Prospector/Danzig cross and our long-term projections that Smart Strike would become a particularly strong cross with Belong to Me mares. At the time, Belong to Me was just beginning his career as a broodmare sire but did have 2 SWs from the Mr. Prospector line: Doctor Voodoo, by Petionville; and Last Best Place, by Gone West.
Well, our projections have been validated in 2009 as Smart Strike has had 3 SWs out of Belong to Me mares this year: (G1 winner Lookin on Lucky, G2 winner Papa Clem and unrestricted SW Striking Tomisue)! In fact, the Werk Nick Rating for the Smart Srike/Belong to Me now qualifies as a rare A+++ *Triple Plus* (click here to view pedigree and nick rating). Not surprising when you look at the stats for Smart Strike with Belong to Me mares: 5 foals, 4 winners, 3 SWs!
Up-and-coming broodmare sire Belong to Me
As of today, there are 11 unrestricted SWs out of Belong to Me mares, and 9 of them are by Mr. Prospector-line sires. Six of the 11 are graded winners, including G1 winner Circular Quay (by Thunder Gulch)!
Recently, Private Feeling was sold at the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November sale for $2,000,000 to Live Oak Stud, in foal to Mr. Greeley. This was a grand slam homerun for Lance and Jerry, who had purchased this mare at the 2004 Keeneland November sale, in foal to Grand Slam, for $130,000!
Taylor Made Sales sold the mare, and they asked me to write up some notes for a pre-sale brochure. Here’s what I wrote:
“When I recommended Smart Strike for Private Feeling in October, 2005, I thought it would be an excellent match, but pedigree analysis becomes a moot point when a producer of her quality comes on.
“There were a couple of things I particularly liked about Private Feeling at the time. She is by Belong to Me, a stallion I believe will become an important broodmare sire because of his pedigree – he is by Danzig and out of a mare descending from a powerful branch of the legendary La Troienne family. The other thing I liked about her is that her bottom line had been fairly prolific at producing black-type with Sleek Dancer providing a strong foundation as her third dam.
“But pedigree only goes so far. At this point, her produce record speaks for itself. From 2 foals to race, she has produced 3-year-old multiple graded winner Kensei, and juvenile multiple G1 winner Lookin at Lucky, the probable favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
“Based on her pedigree and extraordinary produce record to date, I believe Private Feeling has the potential to become a foundation mare for any breeding operation anywhere in the world. Her offspring should be suitable on any surface. After all, Kensei is a G2 winner on dirt and Lookin at Lucky a G1 winner on synthetic surface. Furthermore, 31 of Belong to Me’s 47 unrestricted stakes winners have won stakes on turf.
“Quite simply, Private Feeling is, in my opinion, the best broodmare or broodmare prospect offered at sale in November.”
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Monday, December 7th, 2009
By Jack Werk
Just recently it was reported in all the trades that Sea the Stars’ book had been closed and that the only additions would come from The Tsuis and the Aga Khan.
Canadian owner and breeder Chuck Fipke, my friend and client, is one of the fortunate few who will be breeding a mare to the great European champion in 2010, I’m happy to report. I’ll be the first to tell you, too, that Chuck didn’t originally purchase the mare in question to breed to Sea the Stars. It was after he had purchased her at the Fasig-Tipton November sale last month that the idea just came to him. You’ll soon see why.
Here’s how the story began. Chuck hadn’t received his catalog for the F-T sale until the morning of the sale. However, I had sent him a shortlist of mares I thought he’d be interested in, and one of them was Hip #46 from the Adena Springs consignment. When we (Chuck, his Canadian advisers RJ and Lois Bennett, and me) were at Adena Springs inspecting prospective mares, they brought out Always Awesome – Hip #46! (Click here to view the pedigree). A daughter of Awesome Again, she is from the immediate family of Urban Sea – the dam of Sea the Stars! Chuck has been a HUGE Urban Sea fan and when he saw her pedigree and then her conformation, that was it – he had to have her! Initially, he wanted to buy her specifically because of the family and said he would use her to support his two stallions, Tale of Ekati and Perfect Soul.
Chuck asked me to bid on her at the sale, and I asked him how high was he willing to go? He answered me in three words: Whatever it takes! As it turned out, it took $1 million. I heard the underbidders — a Japanese group — regretted not going higher, and I don’t blame them. She is an outstanding mare, in foal on a March 3 cover to Rachel Alexandra’s sire, Medaglia d’Oro. I believe, in retrospect, that had Sheikh Mohammed been at the sale, Chuck would not have had her for a million – and he may not have had her at all!
Now, the rest of the story! After we returned home and Chuck got to thinking more about Always Awesome, the idea occurred to him to breed her to Sea the Stars. So, at the 11th hour he asked to find out if she’d be accepted to the book of Sea the Stars! I immediately submitted her to John Clarke of the Irish National Stud, an adviser to the Tsuis, and for good measure Chuck called John Oxx, the trainer of Sea the Stars and Chuck’s European trainer.
Chuck’s idea for the mating was a brilliant one from a pedigree standpoint. The mating would create 3×3 inbreeding to Allegretta (dam of Urban Sea) in the resulting foal. In addition to being a racing prospect, his thinking was that a filly would become a valuable broodmare prospect with this inbreeding, and if he got a colt, well … Danehill is inbred 3×3 to Natalma, another dam of a very good Derby winner!
Upon being notified by John Clarke that she was in fact accepted to his first book, Chuck was nearly as excited as when he discovered the Ekati diamond mine!
She is booked to fly to Ireland on January 9th. Most likely, she will become a permanent resident in Ireland, where she can be bred to Sea the Stars — and to his half brother Galileo — for years to come.
Chuck has a similar situation with Ball Chairman, the dam of his Sadler’s Wells stallion Perfect Soul (Ire). Ball Chairman is permanently boarded at Coolmore and was in fact a regular mate of Sadler’s Wells until his retirement.
Oh, by the way, Chuck has a bonus in all of this. Remember the mare is in-foal to a Medaglia d’Oro? Well, she was sexed and it’s a filly!
When you consider the possibilities, $1 million, funny as it may sound, might actually be dirt cheap for Always Awesome!
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Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009
By Jack Werk
The discussion of stud fees has been hot and heavy since mid-October. If haven’t read Sid Fernando’s recent column in Racing Post about stud fees, I think it’s well worth reading (click here). No, it’s not because I’m quoted in the article! Sid makes some important points about the reduction in stud fees for 2010, and he asks whether some stallions might still need to drop more before the breeding season ends.
COOLMORE AMERICA'S GIANT'S CAUSEWAY
Well, I can tell you about one stallion that actually didn’t need to drop (from $125,000 in 2009 to $100,000) in 2010, but did! It should be pretty easy to figure out – just check our leading sire list of unrestricted SWs (USWs) through Nov. 29 and see who’s on top with 18 USWs! (Click here to view chart) I’m speaking of Coolmore’s Giant’s Causeway, of course, one of the best young stallions at stud in the world. Not only does he lead stallions by number of USWs for the year, he also leads all U.S. stallions by first-time USWs for the year with 14!
Actually, he’s got a decent shot at cracking the 20 USW plateau this year, which has only been done twice before by U.S.-based stallions. In 2004, A.P. Indy racked up 20 USWs and last year it happened again — by none other than Giant’s Causeway!
A regally-bred son of Storm Cat – Mariah’s Storm, by Rahy, Giant’s Causeway has taken over for his sire in the U.S. and there’s really no doubt that he is Storm Cat’s best sire. To date, you could say he was also Storm Cat’s best runner, and that’s saying a lot because Storm Cat was better in the U.S. than Europe but Giant’s Causeway did his running across the pond! A winner of 9 of 13 races, an earner of approx. $3.1 million, a Champion, and a multiple G1 winner, Giant’s Causeway was known on the racetrack as an “Iron Horse,” a nickname he deserved because he danced every dance! When he was 3, he made 10 starts and unbelievably 9 races were G1s! He won 6 of those 10 starts – 5 of them G1s! And he ran all year, starting out with the G3 Gladness Stakes in the spring and ending with an breath-taking 2nd to Tiznow (beaten only a head!) in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic!
It made good sense to retire him to Kentucky instead of Ireland, considering that the colt ran his eyeballs out in the BC Classic in his one and only start on dirt! He was also a miler to 1 ¼-mile horse (best at that distance in Europe), so he was exactly what we needed here, and he hasn’t disappointed. It should be no surprise that the average winning distance of his SWs is 8.9f, making his progeny, on paper at least, contenders for the Triple Crown races.
There are some other categories that Giant’s Causeway leads in, too. He’s the leading sire on the general sire list with progeny earnings, with $14,862,200 through Nov. 29. Second on the list is Darley’s Street Cry, with $13,633,449, so it’s going to be a race to the wire.
Giant’s Causeway also leads all US-based stallions by number of Graded SWs, with 12. Second on the list is A.P. Indy, with 10.
At 12, Giant’s Causeway is also showing strong signs of becoming a sire of sires. His sons Shamardal and Footstepsinthesand are going gangbusters this year, with Shamardal leading all freshmen sires easily with earnings of £1,328,067 over Darley’s Dubawi with £589,912 and Footstepsinthesand in 4th on the list with earnings of £359,751.
The Giant’s Causeways are in big demand in Europe, where they obviously take after their sire’s turf abilities (46 of his 66 USWs have won on the turf). But GC is also a very good sire on synthetics and dirt, which makes him probably one of the best stallions to breed to in the “new world” of “multi surfaces.” Plus, he shines in terms of class as 40 of his 66 USWs have won in group/graded company, and 16 of those are G1 winners!
There are many reasons why GC is so successful and one of those is that his pedigree is free of Mr. Prospector. Combine this with the fact the Storm Cat/Mr. Prospector cross AND the Rahy/Mr. Prospector (Rahy is GC’s damsire) cross have been hugely successful, and you have a stallion who fits perfectly with much of the U.S. broodmare population. So, it’s not surprising that 11 of GC’s 16 G1 winners are out of Mr. Prospector-line mares and another, First Samurai, is out of a mare with Mr. P in her pedigree. Furthermore, 30 of GC’s 66 USWs have Mr. P somewhere in the pedigree of the dam.
Coolmore did breed him to very large books, which made it almost impossible for him to show profitability by yearling median sales, but GC’s absolutely amazing ability to get the “big horse” – isn’t that what breeding is all about? – at a very consistent rate makes him an exceptional stallion at a very reasonable price!
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Jack Werk (1944-2010)
