Archive for January, 2010
Wednesday, January 27th, 2010
By Jack Werk
As we get ready for the 2010 breeding season, watch this spot regularly for a new feature here: The New Sire Showcase. I will periodically highlight new young prospects entering stud in 2010. Today, the featured stallion is Vinery’s KODIAK KOWBOY, the Eclipse Award winner of 2009 as America’s Champion Sprinter and the Canadian champion 2-year-old of 2007.
Vinery's Kodiak Kowboy
KODIAK KOWBOY (2005 Bay c by Posse – Kokadrie, by Coronado’s Quest ). 23 starts, 11 wins, 4 seconds, 3 thirds. Earned $1,663,363. Won G1 Carter Handicap, G1 Hill ‘N’ Dale Cigar Mile Handicap, G1 Vosburgh Stakes, etc . Sold for $40,000 as a Keeneland November weanling; resold for $70,000 as an OBS August yearling. Click here to view 5-cross eNicks pedigree. Standing for $15,000 live foal at Vinery in Kentucky.
Kodiak Kowboy is by the ex-Vinery sire Posse, who has moved to New York for the 2010 breeding season to make way for his champion son, recently elected the champion sprinter of 2009. Don’t forget, either, that Kodiak Kowboy was great at 4 in 2009, but he was champion before, too, in 2007, when he was the champion 2-year-old colt in Canada!
A three-time G1 winner with championship credentials, a fine family, and a long line of descent from 2-year-old and early maturing sires, Kodiak Kowboy is one of the most attractive stallion prospects to enter stud in 2010, in my opinion. And at a fee of $15,000, this one’s a classic “No Brainer”!
The new “speed gene” that’s been found would classify Kodiak Kowboy as a C:C – that’s speed and early maturity squared! Take a look at Kodiak Kowboy’s sire line and see how consistently speed oriented and early developing it is, starting with Northern Dancer and ending with his sire, Posse:
Northern Dancer was a champion Canadian 2-year-old who won the Remsen Stakes, Coronation Futurity, Summer Stakes, and Carleton Stakes as a juvenile. He was also second in the Cup and Saucer Stakes and Vandal Stakes, so he was an out-and-out early developer by any standard with a record of 7 for 9 at 2. That’s precocious by any definition!
His son Vice Regent only 5 starts due to injuries that are well documented to have compromised his racing career, none at 2. He won once from 2 starts at 3, and once from 3 starts at 4 and was not a stakes winner. However, he was sent to stud for the promise he had shown – not too many non-SWs go to stud! – and because of his tremendous pedigree. You see, his year older full brother, Viceregal, was Canadian Horse of Year at 2 when he went 8 for 8. That’s serious 2-year-old form! (The decision to send him to stud was validated: Vice Regent ended up leading the Canadian general sire list on 13 occasions.)
Vice Regent sired Deputy Minister, another champion 2-year-old. Deputy Minister won the G1 Young America Stakes, the G1 Laurel Futurity, and five other stakes at 2, when he was named champion 2-year-old in the US AND champion 2-year-old and Horse of the Year in Canada.
Deputy Minister’s son Silver Deputy only raced at 2 and made only 2 starts, winning them both. One of them was the Listed Swynford Stakes. That same year, by the way, the champion Canadian 2-year-old male was Regal Classic, a son of Vice Regent who was also good enough to run second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Silver Deputy’s son Posse won 2 of 7 at 2 but was an early maturing type who was second in the early season G3 Bashford Manor Stakes and who won the G3 Kentucky Breeders’ Cup Stakes later in the year.
Posse sired Kodiak Kowboy, who won 4 of 7 at 2 and also was an early maturing colt that was better than his sire – he actually won the G3 Bashford Manor Stakes. He also won the G2 Saratoga Special and was third in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. He also won the Listed Victoria Stakes in Canada and, like many members of this sire line, was named the champion Canadian 2-year-old of his year.
Does anyone wonder why Kodiak Kowboy ran like he did, based on this consistently early developing and speed branch of Northern Dancer?
Now, mix this with the Mr. Prospector line of Forty Niner through Coronado’s Quest that fronts a tough female family noted for producing older horses, and you have a 2-year-old sprinter who has the ability to be a champion older sprinter!
Check out the family: Kokadrie (Coronado’s Quest – West Turn, by Cox’s Ridge) was unraced. She was, however, a half-sister to the tough Gone West horse West by West, who won $1,038,123 by developing into a successful handicapper at 4 and 5 when he won such races as the G1 Nassau County Handicap and the G3 Widener. He also was second in the G1 Whitney and third in the G1 Suburban – each of these races at one time the best handicap races in the country.
West by West won only one of 3 starts at 2 but was G2-placed in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, but it’s obvious that he was better after age 2, although he was forward enough to race at 2.
Another notable from this family is Little Missouri, a Cox’s Ride colt who is a full sister to Kokadrie’s dam, West Turn (also by Cox’s Ridge). Little Missouri also won once from 3 starts at 2 but came to form at 4, just like West, although he was stakes-placed at 3. But at 4, he won the G1 Brooklyn Handicap among other races and earned $553,025. More so than West by West, Little Missouri was a stayer and a later developer.
The general essence of this family, then, is apparent in the pattern of development of West by West and Little Missouri: some 2-year-old form, but better late development and the ability to stay farther than the sire line of Kodiak Kowboy.
Well, Kodiak Kowboy was the champion sprinter of 2009, but he won the G1 Cigar Mile to end his career, so he was also a miler! And milers, as they say, make the best sires!
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Sunday, January 24th, 2010
By Jack Werk
As we get ready for the 2010 breeding season, watch this spot regularly for a new feature here: The New Sire Showcase. I will periodically highlight new young prospects entering stud in 2010. Today, the featured stallion is Sequel Stallions New York’s Noonmark, who brings one of the most popular sire lines in N. America to New York.
NOONMARK (2003 Dk. Bay or brown c by Unbridled’s Song – In the Storm, by Storm Cat). 19 starts, 4 wins, 5 seconds, 3 thirds. Earned $354,900. Won G3 Mr. Prospector Handicap at 5. Sold for $275,000 as Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling. (Click here to view eNicks pedigree and click here to view Stallion Directory page). Will stand for $6,000 live foal at Sequel Stallions New York.
There’s a perception among a vocal minority that Unbridled’s Song, the sire of Noonmark, gets early maturing horses that are “fried” mid-way to the end of their 3-year-old seasons. In other words, they mean that the sire gets early maturing speed horses that do not last. Enter Noonmark, an absolutely gorgeous son of Unbridled’s Song! He didn’t win his first stakes race until he was 5, and he obviously got better with age. But, did you know that Noonmark also broke his maiden at 2 in a 5 ½-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park and won off by an incredible 10 ¼ lengths in the sensational time of 1:03.91?
At 3, Noonmark won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in 1:09.40 for 6 furlongs and placed in the G2 Swale Stakes to Sharp Humor and in the G2 Woody Stephens Breeders’ Cup Stakes to Songster and Too Much Bling. Each of these horses that he host to were top sprinters.
At 4, Noonmark won an allowance in 1:08.83 for the 6 furlongs, and at age 5 he won the aforementioned G3 Mr. Prospector Handicap in 109.72 for the 6 furlongs. He placed in several other G2s and G3s, too.
So, what you have is this: An early maturing speed horse who was NOT done by his 3-year-old season! In fact, he was precocious enough to win huge at 2 and had the constitution to train on at 5. All through his career, he was a sprinter, too! And for NY breeders, he was a dirt runner who ran on the NY-FLA circuit, but was also good enough to place in stakes in the Midwest, too.
This year several high-profile sons of Unbridled’s Song have retired to stud, including the fast but strictly synthetics Zensational ($20,000), the classic contender Old Fashioned ($12,500), and the classic-placed Dunkirk ($10,000), as well as some others, too. At $6,000 live foal, Noonmark is priced competitively with this group, and although he wasn’t a championship contender like fellow sprinter Zensational, he does have the dirt form that Zensational doesn’t, the stakes win that Dunkirk doesn’t have, and the longevity that Old Fashioned lacks. Yes indeed, he fits with this group, allright!
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Monday, January 18th, 2010
By Jack Werk
When we at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc. were planning the mating of the Smart Strike colt Lookin at Lucky (out if a Belong to Me mare) a few years ago, we were confident that Smart Strike and Belong to Me (both standing at Lane’s End) would work well together, even though there were no such stakes winners from this cross at the time. However, the Mr. Prospector/Danzig cross was an obviously potent combination.
- Lane’s End’s Smart Strike
We weren’t the only ones working with this idea, because the now-4-year-old Smart Strike colt Papa Clem, who won the G2 San Fernando Stakes at Santa Anita at 1 1/16 miles Saturday and the G3 Arkansas Derby last year, is bred exactly the same way! He was bred by his owner, Bo Hirsch, who was probably thinking along the same lines as we were. Great minds think alike!
I am joking, of course, because as anyone associated with breeding racehorses knows, getting a stakes winner is about one of the most statistically difficult things to do in racing! Your chances are helped a lot if you have a serious stallion to work with, and that’s exactly what Smart Strike is: A serious sire of racehorses! He stands for $75,000 in 2010, a major drop from his 2009 fee which was $125,000, and that means he’s great value this year! Don’t forget, this is the same stallion that led the sire list in 2007 and 2008 and was the leading sire of 2009 by US earnings. His son Curlin was also the Horse of the Year the last two years, in 2007 and 2008! Curlin now stands at Lane’s End alongside his sire and was recently represented by his first foal.
Smart Strike is the sire of 70 SWs, which is an incredible 9% stakes winners from foals – just the same percentage as Indian Charlie (my previous blog post), who stands for $70,000. A son of Mr. Prospector out of Canadian champion Classy ‘n Smart, by Smarten, Smart Strike won 6 of 8 starts, including the G1 Philip H. Iselin Handicap at 1 1/16 miles. He went to stud for a $30,000 fee but his sales horses were not that well received early on. Nevertheless, he did sire racehorses, and that’s what Smart Strike is really known for. His colts are especially good, and he can get you a champion 2-year-old like Lookin at Lucky, a classic-winning 3-year-old or champion older horse like Curlin, a top grass horse like English Channel, or top sprinters like Fabulous Find and Soaring Free! Interestingly, while Smart Strike’s 62 unrestricted SWs are divided equally between fillies (31) and colts (31), 7 of his 8 G1 winners are colts.
What I’ve found – and what horsemen have told me – is that the Smart Strikes are dead-game racehorses with “try,” and all the horses named above have exhibited this trait. In fact, they seem to consistently overcome the “flaws” that penalize them in the sales ring! As you would probably expect, a lot of Smart Strike’s SWs are out of Northern Dancer-line stallions because Smart Strike is a Mr. Prospector stallion. But did you know that the only inbreeding in Smart Strike’s pedigree is Nasrullah, 4×5!
Smart Strike is atypical for a Mr. Prospector stallion as his progeny take a little longer to mature and they love a route of ground. In fact, the average winning distance of his SWs is 8.6f. They are equally prolific on the dirt and turf (30 of his 62 have won on the turf) and they excel on the synthetics as well.
What made Danzig-line mares a natural choice to succeed with Smart Strike is that his half-sister is the great Canadian Danzig filly Dance Smartly! Smart Strike’s Canadian champion and horse of the year Soaring Free is out of a Danzig mare, and other Smart Strike GSWs bred this way after Lookin at Lucky and Papa Clem are G1 winner Shadow Cast; G2 winner Bel Air Beauty; and G3 winner High Strike Zone.
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Monday, January 18th, 2010
By Jack Werk
The bio mechanical and conformation guys will tell you that big stallions sometimes have a hard time fitting a large portion of the broodmare population. That’s one reason why a lot of these types of stallions, even if they are successful, are erratic at stud. They’ll get a “big horse,” usually, but not consistently (pun intended!). They are like the power hitters who don’t hit for average!
Indian Charlie, who stands for $70,000 live foal at Airdrie Stud, is a big horse. He’s listed in stallion registers as standing 16.3h! But his size hasn’t stopped him from being a really consistent sire of SWs, and he’s worth his stud fee exactly because his offspring compete at the highest levels of the sport. This weekend, he proved it once again when his undefeated 3-year-old son Conveyance won the G3 San Rafael at Santa Anita in front-running fashion. I watched the race closely because I had a personal interest in him, and, honestly, he didn’t blow me away with his win when I watched it live for the first time. But after viewing the race again a few times, I realized the colt was looking around and really did win with authority and has a lot of upside in him. For now, he’s on the classic trail for new trainer Bob Baffert, who got him when Zabeel Racing bought his after he’d won his first two starts.
Airdrie Stud's Indian Charlie
Conveyance was bred by Gulf Coast Farms LLC. This makes two Triple Crown horses in the Baffert barn for breeder Gulf Coast, which also bred the certain champion 2-year-old colt Lookin at Lucky (click here to read my post on this colt). Gulf Coast is the breeding operation of Lance Robinson and Jerry Bailey, and readers of this blog probably know that Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., makes stallion recommendations for Gulf Coast. Usually, we recommend about 8 to 10 stallions for each mare, and Lance and Jerry will choose the mating based on their conformation analysis of our pedigree choices. Smart Strike, the sire of Lookin at Lucky, was our top choice, and Lance and Jerry went with him because he fit the mare physically, too.
Indian Charlie was our 6th pick for Conveyance’s dam. He was chosen by Lance and Jerry because he fit the mare the best, and Conveyance has proven that now.
Indian Charlie is a son the top California sire In Excess, who descends from the Caro line. This is not a vibrant sire line in the US, but it is one that actually fits the broodmare population pretty well these days, because the various Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector strains are everywhere now and it’s hard not to duplicate those names when planning a mating. Indian Charlie, however, is a complete outcross within 5 generations! The only inbreeding in Conveyance’s pedigree is a 5×4 duplication to Raise a Native and a 5×5 cross to Nashua (click here to view 5-cross pedigree)!
Indian Charlie was trained by Baffert too, and he won 4 of 5 starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby, his only stakes win. His only loss was a 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, where he got hurt. When it came time to go to stud, Brereton Jones, one of the sharpest guys in the stallion business, made the right offer to get him, and he hasn’t looked back since then. It should come as no surprise that Jones has his prize filly Proud Spell currently in foal to Indian Charlie!
Check out these stats: Through 9 crops (including 2010), Indian Charlie is the sire of 46 SWs, which is a mind-boggling 9% stakes winners to foals for him! That’s an unheard of number these days and an incredible display of consistency! But, he hits for power, too. His offspring include such really high-class runners like G1 winner Indian Blessing and G1 winner Fleet Indian, who showcase his skills as a sire at different ends of the spectrum. Indian Blessing, who also was trained by Baffert, earned $2,995,420 and a championship as a 2-year-old; Fleet Indian, in contrast, was a champion older mare who earned $1,704,513.
Now up to bat is Conveyance, and you can bet I’ll be rooting for him to hit one out of the park!
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Sunday, January 10th, 2010
By Jack Werk
On May 18, 2009, I published a post here on Florida-based Wildcat Heir after the Journeyman Stud sire had gotten his 5th first-crop 2yo winner (click here to read the article). “At WTC Inc., we spend a lot of time tracking young stallions, and to have five individual winners by mid-May is an obvious indication that a stallion is siring precocious stock and needs to be followed closely,” is what I wrote then. By Dec. 31, 2009, Wildcat Heir had delivered on that precocious start by having a final tally of 39 – yes, 39! – 2yo winners to his credit, which equaled the record set by Chapel Royal a few years ago. But here’s what’s really impressive about the accomplishment. The 39 winners represent 36% winners of his 2yo crop (108 named 2yos)! That’s a yesteryear-type number, and what I mean by that is that in the days before “big books” a really precocious sire of 2yos was a horse that hit the 30% mark in 2yo winners to foals, just like a top sire in those days could be expected to sire more than 10 percent SWs to foals.
Journeyman Stud's Wildcat Heir
Not only was Wildcat Heir the leading first-crop sire by winners, he was fourth by progeny earnings with $1,169,439 behind Offlee Wild ($1,951,283), Roman Ruler ($1,926,794), and Pollard’s Vision ($1,448,981). This is pretty good company, especially with such promising young sires as Kitten’s Joy (5th) and Afleet Alex (6th) directly behind him, and such names as Rock Hard Ten (19th), Eurosilver (20th), and Ghostzapper (21st) well down the list!
Florida has historically produced sires that get 2yo winners – remember Lawmaker and An Eldorado? – but these types usually never go on to as a general rule to get classy stakes horses. Wildcat Heir, a G1 winner who stands for a bargain $8,000 in 2010, may be an exception! On Saturday, the stallion had two runners in the big Florida races at Gulfstream, and lo and behold, one won, and the other ran second!
The winner was Richiegirlgonewild (click here to view 5-cross pedigree), who shocked the field in the G3 Old Hat Stakes at 31-1! She is now Wildcat Heir’s first Graded SW, too.
Then, Wildcat Frankie (click here to view 5-cross pedigree) led the field in the Listed $100,000 Spectacular Bid Field into deep stretch before settling for second.
Wildcat Heir was not a SW at 2 himself – he was second in the G2 Sanford Stakes at 2 — and like his sire didn’t get good until he was older, when at 4 he won the G1 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. He retired with a record of 6 wins from 12 starts. This may be a good sign for his offspring as they mature, too. Though they were precocious at 2, they may end up being better racehorses after 2, just like their sire and grandsire!
I wrote the following in my May 18 post, and it gives an indication of the type of sire that Wildcat Heir may become: “How important is the G1 De Francis Memorial Dash as an indicator of future stallion potential? Just look at some of the previous winners – Cherokee Run, Yes It’s True, Montbrook and Smoke Glacken!”
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Thursday, January 7th, 2010
By Jack Werk
For years we’ve been trying to explain what’s wrong with using “the whole population” as a measure of opportunity for crosses. By now, it’s well known that a rival nick rating service does exactly that. They’ve been using it as their main selling point and knocking WTC’s eNicks system because we don’t do it that way. Well, there’s a reason why we don’t. They just haven’t figured it out yet.
Bill Oppenheim
In his January 6, 2010 TDN column Bill Oppenheim makes his position very clear:
“This is a big thing with a lot of people now, how things ought to be measured against opportunity in the general population. I used to think it would be better if I could do that, but I don’t think so any more.”
Just because something seems to make sense doesn’t mean it’s going to work in the real world. As Bill goes on to suggest, the problem is that you’re comparing the 2% of the thoroughbred population that counts as superior with the 98% that only represents opportunity. Anybody can understand that the real opportunity is concentrated in that 2%. The other 98% is just not the same.
But what really got my attention in Bill’s column was his explanation of his study of Northern Dancer inbreds. The way he organizes that study is a primer in the way the Werk Nick Rating is calculated. Thanks for clearing that up, Bill!
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Sunday, January 3rd, 2010
By Jack Werk
One of the stallions I recommend on a regular basis is Ashford Stud’s Tale of the Cat. At $30,000, he offers a whole lotta bang for the buck! He proved it again yesterday when his 5-year-old daughter Cat by the Tale (click here to view pedigree) became a SW and GSW for the first time when she won the G2 San Gorgonio on turf at Santa Anita.
Coolmore's Tale of the Cat
That makes it 63 SWs for the son of Storm Cat, whose offspring seem to do a bit of everything. They win at 2, 3, and as older runners, they win on dirt, turf, and synthetics, they win short and long, and they win in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres!
There’s a trend I’ve noticed with Tale of the Cat. It’s his ability to get turf runners in the US – an important dimension to this multi-dimensional stallion. Obviously, he’s been doing it in Australia, but Cat by the Tale’s win in the San Gorgonio marks another major turf stakes victory for her sire, whose son Gio Ponti will most likely win the Eclipse Award as top turf horse of 2009. Gio Ponti (click here to view pedigree) has earned $3,153,800 and is 16-9-4-0 with victories in four G1s on turf in 2009! They are the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap, the Man O’ War, the Arlington Million, and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. And let’s not forget that Gio Ponti (also a 5-year-old like Cat by the Tale) was 2nd in the BC Classic to Zenyatta!
Gio Ponte - 4-Time G1 Winner in 2009
On New Year’s Day, Friday, Tale of the Cat’s 3-year-old son Cat Park (click here to view pedigree) was 3rd in the G3 Tropical Park Derby at Calder on the turf. Last year when he was 2, Cat Park was also 3rd in the Grand Canyon Handicap at Churchill Downs on turf.
In the last month, Tale of the Cat also had the 5-year-old turf SW Taletobetold (click here to view pedigree), a mare who’s won $469,550 to date. Taletobetold won the Lightning City Stakes at Tampa over 5f, Cat Park was placed in the Tropical Park Derby at 9f, Cat by the Tale won the San Gorgonio at 9f and Gio Ponti won the Man O’ War at 11f – which just shows you that Tale of the Cat’s SWs can win over a range of distances.
As a racehorse, Tale of the Cat was really known as a sprinter by virtue of winning the G2 King’s Bishop at 7f – believe it or not his only stakes win. But the stallion’s record was 9-5-1-2 with $360,900 in earnings. He was 3rd twice in the G1 Vosburgh, a sprint, but he was 2nd in the G1 Whitney at 9f to Awesome Again, too. And, in case you forgot, he also won an allowance race at 8f on turf at Saratoga in 1:34.95!
If you happen to examine the pedigrees of these four Tale of the Cat stakes horses, you’ll note that there’s quite a bit of turf in all of them. Cat by the Tale is out of an Irish-bred mare by Indian Ridge who won a G3 at 2 in Ireland! Gio Ponti is out of a mare by stamina influence Alydar whose dam was bred and raced in Argentina and in the US on turf and dirt. Cat Park’s 3rd dam is British-bred Creaking Board, a SW on turf and the dam of Crowd Pleaser, a turf SW. Taletobetold is out of a Miswaki mare who is out of a Le Fabuleux from a family of turf SWs!
This turf trend I’ve noticed just goes to prove how versatile and talented Tale of the Cat is as a stallion, because don’t forget he’s got his share of major winners on the dirt, too. These dirt runners include horses like G1 winners Lion Heart, My Trusty Cat, Cat Moves, and Tale of Ekati, who enters stud in 2010 at Darby Dan Farm.
This breakdown of his 55 unrestricted SWs really tells the story: 25 have won on the dirt, 23 have won on the turf, and 7 have won on the synthetics. And, 7 of the 55 are G1 winners. Tale of the Cat is a stallion that offers breeders versatility with a touch of class in a big way!
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Jack Werk (1944-2010)
